Climate Change May Treat Table Grape (Vitis vinifera subsp. vinifera Hegi) Cultivation and Industry: Niche Modeling and Comparative Phylogenetic Analyses

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Department of Plant Sciences and Biotechnology, Faculty of Life Sciences and Biotechnology, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran

2 Department of Plant Sciences and Biotechnology, Faculty of Life Sciences and Biotechnology, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran.

10.48308/pae.2025.237743.1095

Abstract

Grape (Vitis vinifera subsp. vinifera Hegi) cultivation and its related industry are important sources of income for several regions and countries worldwide. Table grape gains its popularity because of the economic significance of this plant. Global warming and climate change are widely recognized as significant challenges in the 21st century, posing a substantial threat to various aspects of the world. One area in which these phenomena may greatly impact is grape production across different regions. Grape is cultivated in several parts of Iran, ranging from northwest to northeast and southern regions. The present study was performed to predict grape cultivation areas in the present time and future climate changeably in the year 2050. Such studies can provide a clear vision of future cultivation and help us to plan conservation strategies for grape cultivation. We used a combination of different species distribution modeling as well as comparative phylogeny analyses for the present study.  Maxent, Dismo, and general linear model analyses of grape plant occurrence showed potential areas of grape cultivation at present and indicated a significant reduction in such areas by the year 2050. The model's result indicated the importance of precipitation and temperature for grape future cultivation. We identified genetic loci with adaptive potentials to climate change, which may be used in conservation and crossing among grape cultivars. The present findings are discussed along with our previous population genetics and landscape genetic studies of the same grape cultivars and suggestions are provided for the conservation of these plants.
 

Keywords

References

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Plant, Algae, and Environment
Volume 9, Issue 1
March 2025
Pages 1-20

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