Modelling of the Climate Change Impact on the Spatial Distributions of Crocus Species in Iran

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Department of Biology, Faculty of Basic Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran

2 Department of Plant Sciences and Technology, Faculty of Life Sciences and Biotechnology, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran

3 Department of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Management, Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti Uniersity, Tehran, Iran

10.48308/pae.2025.239306.1114

Abstract

Global warming, droughts, widespread fires, and shifts in plant phenology contribute to a loss of biodiversity. Plant species are also facing a decrease in the desirability of their habitats due to climate change. These events result in significant genetic erosion within plant taxa. In the present study, to predict the current and future spatial distributions of Crocus species of Iran and possibility of expansion and reduction of their current habitats, the spatial distribution of this endangered genus, based on presence data of seven Crocus species, including C. biflrous, C. cancellatus, C. caspius, C. haussknechtii, C. michelsonii, C. speciosus, C. sativus was investigated under present and future climate change scenarios: RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 for the years 2050 and 2080 using a set of ecological variables (Sixteen environmental variables) and the MaxEnt model. The projected climate maps resulted in reductions and expansions, as well as positive and especially negative range change for the studied species in comparison to their current predicted distributions. Among all studied species, Saffron (Crocus sativus) showed the highest positive range change as well as the highest significant change under optimistic scenarios for 2050 and 2080, while Crocus michelsonii showed the highest range of negative changes under these scenarios. C. biflorus, C. speciosus, and C. caspius also revealed a negative range change, respectively. Finally, the results of this study revealed that the species whose current habitats are negatively affected by climate change (especially C. michelsonii) are the most endangered Crocus species in the face of climate change. Therefore, a conservation plan to protect these threatened species seems necessary.

Keywords

References

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Plant, Algae, and Environment
Volume 9, Issue 3
DOi
September 2025
Pages 1-22

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